Becoming A Chameleon

Savvy entrepreneurs & investors adapt quickly to new truths and changing circumstances.

Author

Moshe Modeira
July 16, 2024

Commerce & Capital is a weekly ode to universal truths, first principles thinking, leading with integrity, learning with humility & executing with confidence.

Format

Hey Friends

I have recently been talking with investor and trader friends about what they are seeing in the markets — and if indeed recession is on the horizon.

I have an upcoming series of interviews about who the key players are right now that are deploying risk capital reliably and effectively — and where exactly the winds of conscious capitalism and ethical investment are currently blowing in Q3 2024.

The mood of many investors I’m talking to is not great, not rosy, not peachy. The general sentiment among many of them is that there are troubling economic trends brewing that demand our immediate collective attention.

Many are pointing to the dangers of the emotional investment style employed by many unseasoned investors, which accounts for most people. The allure of easy gains and momentum-driven returns lead many small-cap investors into unnecessarily risky waters, setting the stage for future financial turmoil.

Consider this: From 2020 to early 2022, we witnessed a period of unprecedented market gains, especially in crypto. That bull run, fuelled by a confluence of low interest rates, stimulus measures and unbridled economic optimism, created a new generation of investors drunk on the idea of effortless market gains. The intoxicating allure of 40%, 50%, even 70% annualized returns has warped perceptions of what constitutes sound investment strategy.

The sobering reality is that we're standing on the precipice of a good old fashioned recession, and many of us are ill-prepared for what that reality looks like because it’s been a while since the last one.

The yield curve, a traditional oracle looked at in economic forecasting, has been flashing red for some time now. We're seeing the most inverted curve for the most prolonged period of time since 1981, a harbinger of economic turbulence that can no longer be ignored. Yet, many investors remain oblivious, chasing the ghosts of past gains with a reckless abandon, hoping that the truth today will be the truth tomorrow. It almost never is.

Many investors agreed that a great deal of the activity we're witnessing these days in the equity and crypto markets isn't investing — it's more akin to gambling. One investor reminded me that the legendary fund manager Bill Gross once said, "At a fundamental level, investing is just one form of making a bet. It's essential, however, that the bet be made in a way that is investing (net present value positive) rather than gambling (net present value negative)."

❝

At a fundamental level, investing is just one form of making a bet. It's essential, however, that the bet be made in a way that is investing (net present value positive) rather than gambling (net present value negative).

Bill Gross, co-founder, PIMCO

The everyday investor, intoxicated by the easy wins of recent years, has lost sight of this crucial distinction. We have abandoned risk-adjusted returns in favour of FOMO — a fear of missing out mentality, paying premium prices for "hot" stocks with little regard for underlying value or long-term viability.

This myopic focus on short-term gains is a recipe for disaster. History is littered with cautionary tales — 2008, 2001, 1987, 1982 ... Each of those market crashes serve as stark reminder of the perils of ignoring fundamentals in favour of hype and speculation.

As we hurtle towards what promises to be an era of extreme volatility, many entrepreneurs and investors find themselves at a crossroads, ill-equipped to navigate the treacherous waters ahead. Even those with seven-figure portfolios may find themselves adrift, their strategies built primarily on the shifting sands of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks that have dominated recent bull runs (C&C will do a deep-dive into the Mag 7 in coming editions).

The harsh truth is this: The halcyon days of turning a $100,000 investment into a million-dollar windfall overnight are behind us. The next cycle appears like it will be unforgiving, separating the wheat from the chaff with brutal efficiency.

So, what's a savvy investor to do in these turbulent times? The answer lies in a return to fundamentals. It's time to ignore the siren call of easy money and embrace a more measured, strategic approach to capital allocation. This means diversification, risk management, and a keen eye for value — not just momentum.

For those feeling out of their depth, seek guidance from seasoned professionals, or explore regulated investment vehicles in Canada / the US.

The key is to approach the markets with a clear-eyed understanding of risk and reward, rather than blind optimism.

We are currently embroiled in economic uncertainty. The recession alarms are sounding, and ignoring them could prove catastrophic. It's time to sober up, reassess our strategies, and remember: in the world of investing, slow and steady doesn't just win the race — it survives it.

Onward,

Moshe Modeira

Editor-In-Chief

Commerce & Capital

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Market Alpha: Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty

Trump Assassination Attempt Shakes Markets:The attempted execution of former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally this past week has sent shockwaves through global markets, introducing a new layer of political uncertainty. This event has heightened tensions in the United States and raised concerns about potential civil unrest, with implications stretching far beyond domestic politics. International allies and rivals alike are closely monitoring the situation, as evidenced by the swift reactions from global leaders. The incident has prompted a reevaluation of security measures for high-profile political figures and could influence campaign strategies for the upcoming election. Investors are now grappling with the potential for increased market volatility, as political instability often correlates with economic uncertainty.

🔑Key Insight: Consider diversifying your portfolio with defensive assets — hedging strategies in order to mitigate potential political risk-induced market swings.

AI and Tech Sector Dynamics: The artificial intelligence sector continues to dominate headlines, with Google reportedly nearing a $23 billion acquisition of cybersecurity startup Wiz. This move highlights the growing importance of AI in the tech industry, and the fierce competition for talent and resources. The deal, if completed, will mark one of the largest acquisitions in the cybersecurity space, highlighting the critical role of data protection in an increasingly AI-driven landscape. Meanwhile, concerns over AI's impact on jobs and privacy persist, as evidenced by OpenAI whistleblowers filing an SEC complaint over NDAs. This development underscores the ethical challenges facing AI companies and the potential for increased regulatory scrutiny. The AI sector's rapid growth is also reshaping the job market, with companies like Microsoft feeling the need to push "AI PCs" for much of 2024 (update: don’t buy one!) and the broader tech industry experiencing a surge in AI-related layoffs as firms restructure to capitalize on the AI boom.

🔑Key Insight: Look for investment opportunities in AI-adjacent sectors like cybersecurity and cloud computing, which are poised to benefit from the ongoing AI revolution.

Global Economic Indicators: China's GDP growth slowed to 4.7% in Q2, missing forecasts and raising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy. Scores of regional and national banks have shuttered operations in the last several weeks alone, prompting unimaginable scenes of irate bank customers thronging the entrances of financial institutions, screaming for answers from officials about where their money has gone. Dire developments like these could have ripple effects on global trade and investment, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on Chinese demand. The slowdown comes as China faces multiple challenges, including a property market crisis and demographic pressures. In the U.S. and Canada, inflation data continues to be a focal point, with recent figures fueling hopes for interest rate cuts later this year. The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is becoming increasingly complex, balancing inflation concerns with signs of a cooling labor market. Globally, central banks are walking a delicate tight-rope, with the potential for diverging, clashing monetary policies activated across major economies.

🔑Key Insight: Monitor emerging market equities and currencies, which may present value opportunities as they adjust to China's economic recalibration and potential shifts in global monetary policy.

Cryptocurrency and Financial Technology: The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with Bitcoin experiencing significant price fluctuations. Recent hacks and security breaches, including a surge in crypto-related crimes, have underscored the ongoing risks in the sector. The intersection of traditional finance and crypto continues to evolve, with major institutions exploring blockchain technologies while remaining cautious about direct cryptocurrency exposure. Blackrock CEO Larry Fink’s enthusiastic endorsement of Bitcoin a day ago will no doubt be a huge market indicator for many, finally mainstreaming bitcoin as “digital gold” — a viable and investable equity market.

🔑Key Insight: Consider allocating a small portion of risk capital to well-established cryptocurrencies or blockchain-focused ETFs to gain exposure to the sector's potential upside, while managing downside risk.

Corporate Sector: Major companies are making strategic moves in response to changing economic and political landscapes. Charles Schwab's stock has sunk as its CEO announced the firm will get "smaller," reflecting broader concerns in the financial sector. Amazon's Prime Day sales event is under scrutiny, with a Senate review finding it to be a "major cause" of worker injuries, highlighting growing tensions between labor practices and consumer demand in e-commerce. In the tech sector, Tesla is on a hiring spree a mere three months after Musk-ordered mass firings, showcasing the volatile nature of employment in cutting-edge industries. Meanwhile, Russian cybersecurity firm Kaspersky's decision to exit the U.S. market following a ban by the Commerce Department underscores the geopolitical pressures affecting global tech companies. These developments reflect the complex challenges corporations face in navigating economic uncertainties, regulatory pressures, and rapidly evolving market conditions.

🔑 Key Insight: Focus on companies demonstrating resilience and strategic flexibility in the face of economic and geopolitical pressures. Look for firms that can effectively balance workforce management, regulatory compliance, and operational efficiency while maintaining strong market positions. Pay particular attention to those successfully navigating the complexities of global markets, adapting to changing labor dynamics and innovating in response to technological and political shifts. Companies that can proactively address these challenges while maintaining ethical practices and stakeholder trust are likely to outperform others in the current volatile business environment.

Market Alpha: The confluence of geopolitical tensions, technological advancements and economic uncertainties creates a complex landscape for investors. The Trump assassination attempt could potentially reshape the political narrative heading into the 2024 U.S. elections, with implications for policy and market sentiment. Meanwhile, the ongoing AI revolution continues to drive both innovation and disruption across sectors, creating new winners and losers in the corporate world. The global economic picture remains mixed, with China's slowdown and U.S. inflation concerns weighing against pockets of resilience in other markets. Savvy investors will need to carefully balance these factors, remaining vigilant to both risks and opportunities in an increasingly unpredictable global environment. The coming months promise to be pivotal, with the potential for significant market realignments as these various forces interact and evolve. This is the time to develop a flexible investment strategy that can quickly adapt to changing geopolitical and economic conditions, potentially incorporating tactical asset allocation and alternative investment strategies to navigate a complex global landscape.

Commerce & Capital: How We Became Lazypants

An Entrepreneurial Lesson About Adapting To Change

The founding of the loungewear brand Lazypants is a tale of perseverance, adaptability, and serendipity in the cutthroat world of retail fashion. It’s a period of my entrepreneurial life where I experienced great highs and learned sobering lessons. Over time, I will reference this story and this period of my life in order to share business insights I gleaned. This is a basic Coles notes of the founding story, a story I haven’t shared for a while, a story with a lesson — because all good stories need lessons, just as all lessons are best learned when conveyed in a story.

The lesson, by the way, to get it out of the way, is adaptability. You have to be adaptable. Because things evolve starkly and fatefully in business. Everything eventually morphs into something else previously unimagined. You have to always be prepared for the unexpected to unfold.

I worked briefly with Hugo Boss in 2010, spending about ten months there doing product sales and marketing and learning a hell of a lot about the inner workings of one of the most famous fashion brands in the world. Brimming with inspiration, and my entrepreneurial antenna ever-buzzing, I joined forces later that year with some entrepreneurial friends to found Rebus Productions, an apparel company we named as a combination of an old French word for puzzles made out of symbols and images - rebuses, and “productions” — added on as a nod to the ingenuity of an old anecdote I always loved about designer Kenneth Cole's clever rebranding trick in New York, when he added the same word to his brand as a workaround to gain access to street-level production permits usually only made available to film crews.

Rebus Denim ad, VICE Magazine, 2011

Rebus’ initial vision was premium denim and accessories — designed in Toronto, manufactured in a factory on the outskirts of Istanbul, and distributed worldwide. Our team was young, ambitious, connected, and allergic to the word "no." We threw ourselves into every imaginable aspect of building the denim brand — attending trade shows, reaching out to manufacturing partners, courting stores and vendors globally, meeting with retailers and aggressively marketing. It was an absolute whirlwind of a time, a time well worth it’s own Scarface-style “Push It To The Limit” montage of success😀

However, by late 2011, despite some great achievements — including placements in popular boutiques, ad spots in VICE Magazine, and a co-marketing campaign with NEW ERA Hats — we were struggling financially. To make matters worse, our line of women’s denim line had failed to gain traction, a critical early misstep in what remains a hyper-competitive fashion category.

It was during this challenging period that we stumbled upon the idea that would change everything. As a last-ditch effort to stay afloat, we launched a capsule collection of colourful sweatpants, jokingly branded as "Lazypants" with the tagline "Why Sweat When You Can Be Lazy?"

Lazypants, Rebus’ loungewear pivot away from denim

This self-deprecating, lighthearted approach was a far cry from our initial ambitious vision of creating the next Diesel, the next great denim empire — but it serendipitously resonated with consumers in a way our denim never had. It turned out to be a stroke of genius, a decision that saved the company.

The subsequent success of Lazypants as a sweatpants-and-hoodies loungewear brand was meteoric, teaching our young team of entrepreneurs a timeless lesson about the importance of adaptability. Bring your A game and just work hard day in and day out, because unforeseen factors will always arise that will change the trajectory of your previously held vision, no matter what.

The retail fashion world isn’t just glitz and glamour and runways and photo shoots. There are a number of annual conferences and trade shows where the dealmaking, commerce and face-to-face meetings that are the lifeblood of the industry take place. Our experience at the MAGIC trade show in Las Vegas in 2012 was particularly eye-opening. Here, in the bowels of the schmatta trade, we witnessed firsthand the power dynamics of the industry.

Walking around the conference floor and meeting legends like Adriano Goldschmid (AG Jeans) and Dov Charney (American Apparel) was an epic experience for me because it humanized and democratized everyone. These were guys I had previously only read about, looked up to, imagined what their lives were like. Here they were, on the conference floor, industriously working the buyers and being ambassadors for their brand just as vigorously as they did in their early days.

I’ll never forget coming across influential Montreal-based fashion blogger Marcus Troy imperiously holding court, with representatives from major brands lining up in a long cue to supplicate him with free merchandise and gifts in the hopes of procuring a favourable writeup or mention in his blog that could lead to big sales.

Witnessing this was such a stark illustration of the changing landscape of consumer marketing. It was still the early days of the fashion blogosphere, and the influential power of fashion blogs was on the rise. It was a moment in time I will never forget. We were all on the brink of social commerce. Online shopping, though it had been technically possible since the 1990s, was enjoying a moment where it’s importance was sky high. The collision of the community effects of the social media platforms such as Instagram and Tumblr and Snapchat, and the rise of an extremely active coterie of fashion and consumer goods bloggers whose opinions could literally sway markets was the zeitgeist that gripped the early 2010s.

This experience hammered home the golden rule of the industry: those who have the gold make the rules. We realized that success in fashion wasn't just about creating a great product; it was about navigating a complex ecosystem of powerful influencers, buyers, designers and trendsetters, online as well as offline, click and mortar.

Armed with this knowledge, we pivoted our strategy. We aggressively pursued influencer partnerships, successfully placing our product with celebrities like Demi Moore, Mila Kunis, Alessandro Ambrosio and Hailey Baldwin. We embraced social media, particularly Instagram, encouraging customers to become brand ambassadors by sharing candid lifestyle photos of themselves wearing Lazypants. #LazySunday was a particular effective influencer campaign we introduced. Brand interest exploded.

The multi-pronged social marketing approach paid off. Lazypants gained recognition from top publications like GQ — and became established as a successful brand in its own right, with a cult following still to this day.

The story of Lazypants is more than just a tale of a successful product launch. It's a narrative about learning to read the room in an ever-changing and evolving industry like retail fashion, understanding the power of amplification via influencer and social marketing, and being willing to pivot whenever necessary. It's about realizing that sometimes, success comes from the most unexpected places — in this case, a pair of sweatpants with a whimsical name, changing categories completely — from denim to loungewear.

CTA: Share Your Story of Business Adaptability

My team’s journey from ambitious denim designers to the creators of a beloved loungewear brand taught us invaluable lessons about the fashion industry's complexities, the importance of adaptability, and the power of not taking ourselves too seriously. The Lazypants story is about understanding and leveraging the unwritten rules of entrepreneurship in order to give yourself the best chance to not just survive, but thrive. When was a time that you launched a business or a brand, only to be met with unexpected obstacles? When were you forced to pivot, and why? Share your experiences of business adaptability and perseverance with us in the comments section 🙏 💰 🚀

Life Design: LoupeDeck Is My Editing Lifeline

I haven’t officially launched my Youtube channel yet, but editing videos for clients and creators I’ve supported over the last five years, I was constantly seeking to optimize my workflow because, well, editing is hard and time-consuming. Discovering Loupedeck several years ago was nothing short of a revelation. This powerful editing console has transformed the way I approach post-production, making the process not just faster, but more intuitive, enjoyable and accessible. Too many people I speak to have never heard of Loupedeck. I wanted to change that in this week’s Life Design section.

Loupedeck+ console

At its core, Loupedeck is a specialized control surface designed to integrate seamlessly with popular editing software like Adobe Premiere Pro, Final Cut Pro and DaVinci Resolve. The device features an array of physical controls — dials, wheels, buttons, and sliders — each of which can be customized to perform specific functions within whatever editing software it’s connected to.

The magic of Loupedeck lies in its tactile interface. Instead of hunting through menus or memorizing complex keyboard shortcuts, you can make precise adjustments with a simple turn of a dial or press of a button. For instance, one dial might control clip volume, while another adjusts colour temperature. A series of buttons could be set up for quick cuts, transitions, or other frequently used effects.

What sets Loupedeck apart is its context-sensitive functionality. The controls automatically adapt based on which panel or tool you're using in your editing software. This means you can seamlessly switch between colour grading, audio mixing, and timeline editing without taking your hands off the device.

I’m still using the Loupedeck+, their first generation console, the OG beast that put Loupedeck on the map. The latest iterations, like the Loupedeck CT and Loupedeck Live, innovate on their core concept even further, with customizable touch screens that can display different control layouts for various editing tasks. This level of flexibility allows editors to create highly personalized workflows tailored to their specific needs.

The impact on editing productivity will be profound. Tasks that once required multiple clicks or keystrokes can now be accomplished with a single action. Color grading, in particular, becomes a much more fluid and intuitive process, allowing for fine, detailed adjustments and more creative exploration.

It's surprising that Loupedeck isn't more widely celebrated in the editing community. This tool doesn't just incrementally improve the editing process – it fundamentally transforms it, bridging the gap between the digital and physical realms of post-production.

For any creative entrepreneurs and content creators looking to elevate their craft and streamline their video editing workflow, embracing control surfaces like the Loupedeck isn't just an option — it's a game-changing necessity that opens up access to new realms of creative possibility. It’s the difference between learning how to video edit over months and years, and reducing that learning curve down to days and weeks. I wouldn’t hesitate; go out and purchase one immediately.

🌍 Social Media

How Gawx creates Hollywood in his bedroom - Digital Spaghetti: You need to see this interview between Digital Spaghetti’s Jack Conte and Gawx, a 20-year-old aspiring filmmaker with a growing Youtube following. Gawx creates cinematic shots that rival Hollywood productions using simple tools and creative techniques in his bedroom. He employs everyday items like skateboards and paper rolls alongside more professional equipment such as an FX3 camera and a motorized slider to achieve stunning visual effects. Gawx's process involves meticulous post-production work, including motion tracking and color grading, often assisted by his family members during filming. Drawing inspiration from renowned directors like Kubrick and Anderson, as well as music videos and fellow YouTubers, he combines chronological work methods with extensive experimentation. Despite using relatively accessible equipment, Gawx's dedication to perfecting every detail, from lighting to camera movements, results in uniquely captivating videos that showcase his growing expertise in filmmaking, and should serve as inspiration for up and coming video creators and filmmakers about versatility, problem-solving and, there’s that word again — adaptability.

How to get products made - orenmeetsworld: One of my favourite new creators is California-based Oren John, whose breakdowns and analysis about brand marketing, creative direction and fashion production really makes the worlds of apparel, design and consumer product management very accessible for the average person exploring how to get started in this landscape. In this video, Oren provides an overview of product creation in 2024, where any entrepreneur can access the same factories as major brands. Drawing from extensive experience in creating various products, Oren showcases online tools and platforms like Import Yeti, Alibaba, and Petra for finding and communicating with factories. Key points include the importance of specifying quality expectations, comparing multiple suppliers, building relationships with manufacturers, and understanding cultural differences in business practices across countries — and the value of understanding these nuances when sourcing products globally.

I have to agree with @RobLipsett here on X — this is indeed a fantastic Joe Rogan quote about picking yourself back up again after you fall, and carrying on, like the cameras are rolling. Because, they are. They always are.

📚 Book Shelf

Influence by Robert Cialdini. Drawing from extensive research and real-world observations, Cialdini identifies six key principles of influence: reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking, and scarcity. The book offers a deep dive into how these principles shape human behavior and decision-making, often in subtle ways. For entrepreneurs and marketers, this book provides invaluable insights into consumer psychology and ethical persuasion techniques. Cialdini's work remains highly relevant in today's digital age, extolling timeless wisdom on the art and science of influence.

The Unsold Mindset by Collin Coggins. I’m loving Colin Coggins' refreshing perspective on sales and personal growth. Rather than focusing on traditional closing techniques, Coggins emphasizes the power of authenticity and genuine human connection in the sales process. The book challenges readers to reframe their approach to selling, viewing it as a means of creating value rather than simply securing transactions. This insightful work provides valuable lessons for entrepreneurs, sales professionals, and anyone looking to enhance their interpersonal skills in a business context.

Bullshit Jobs by David Graeber. I avoided this book for years before recently taking the plunge. Graeber's Bullshit Jobs is a provocative analysis of modern work culture, challenging the notion that our 9-to-5 roles are inherently productive or necessary. Graeber argues that a significant portion of today's jobs lack genuine purpose, a claim that resonates with many in the corporate world. The book delves into the psychological and economic factors that perpetuate these roles, providing insights that are particularly relevant for entrepreneurs and business leaders. While controversial, Graeber's work is a thought-provoking read about the nature of work, value creation, workplace dynamics and the future of labour in our modern economic system.

📰 Article Of The Week

The low road, the high road, and the way the wind blows - Nate Silver / Silver Bulletin: Nate Silver's article analyzes the political implications of the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. Silver notes that while the full impact remains uncertain, early indicators suggest a boost in Trump's electoral prospects, with prediction markets showing an increase in his chances of winning from 60% to 70%. The event may make Trump more sympathetic to voters and undermine Biden's campaign narrative of restoring stability. It could also provide a "permission structure" for some voters to support Trump, as evidenced by recent high-profile endorsements from Bill Ackman and Elon Musk. Silver emphasizes that the Trump campaign's response - whether they take a conciliatory "high road" or a divisive "low road" - will be crucial in shaping the political fallout. The incident also intensifies pressure on Democrats to consider replacing Biden as their nominee, though the White House appears resistant to this idea. Silver points out that the event highlights the candidates' vulnerability, potentially impacting voter perceptions. He also notes the challenge of interpreting polling data in the coming weeks due to multiple factors influencing public opinion simultaneously. Silver observes that uncertainty and fear often lead to inertia in decision-making, even when better alternatives might be available, a dynamic that could play out in both parties' strategies moving forward.

See y’all next week 🙏 Would love to hear your thoughts! Leave your comments below.

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