WW4 Will Be Fought With Sticks and Stones

The Famous Einstein Quote Holds True. We Are At A Civilizational Crossroads.

Author

Moshe Modeira
October 09, 2024

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Hey Friends: Peace — not War

As Q4 2024 dawns, the spectre of yet another war looms ominously over the international community.

Long-simmering animosity between Iran and Israel has reached a boiling point, with recent provocations and retaliations pushing both nations to the brink of open warfare.

This escalation is unfortunate. Tragic. Something that for years I postulated would never happen, despite the outward bluster. Persian friends and I — many I consider family — often laugh together, fully aware of the hubris of the old warhawks at the helm of both countries, but thinking that surely the logistical and existential quagmire presented by such a war would cause cooler heads to prevail.

Instead, here we are — on the doorstep of a conflict that has the potential to draw in neighbouring countries, global superpowers, and reshape the geopolitical landscape as we have known it.

At the heart of this conflict lies a complex web of historical grievances, religious differences and strategic interests. As I've touched upon in a previous edition, the situation in Israel and the broader Middle East is far more nuanced than often portrayed. 

Modern Israel, a nation forged in the aftermath of World War II, has long viewed Iran's nuclear ambitions and rhetoric as an existential threat. Iran, for its part, sees Israel as an illegitimate entity and a tool of Western imperialism in the region. This mutual distrust and hostility have been further exacerbated by proxy conflicts, cyberattacks, and covert operations carried out by both sides over the years. The Iranian government for decades has released annual missives threatening imminent attack on Israel, America and any assortment of Western powers.

A series of events have precipitated in the last year, horrifically shattering an already fragile status quo.

The current crisis was ignited on October 7, 2023, when Hamas, the elected governing entity of Gaza, launched an unprecedented and deadly assault on Israel. On a day coinciding with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, Hamas militants breached the Gaza-Israel border, targeting civilian areas including kibbutzim, nearby towns, and a music festival. The attack resulted in over 1,200 Israeli deaths, mostly civilians, with thousands more injured and approximately 240 taken hostage. The scale and brutality of the assault, which included the ghastly spectre of the assailants jubilantly uploading and broadcasting hours of social media footage depicting murder, sexual violence, and brutal torture during the attack, shocked the world and represented the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.

In response, Israel declared war on Hamas, launching extensive air strikes on Gaza and eventually a ground invasion, leading to tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties and a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. This event has shattered the fragile status quo in the region, deepening the Israeli-Palestinian divide, causing Israel to have to exist in a state of emergency for a calendar year now with no immediate end in sight.

Hamas, peculiarly, by all reports has been firing missiles and other artillery into Israeli territory, non-stop, for the past year, seemingly always able to be replenished with fresh arms and weapons arriving via an intricate web of tunnels and underground pathways.

Nothing typifies my abject frustration with this conflict like the news of Canadian-Israeli activist Vivian Silver, a woman who shared much of the two-state peacenik ideals of my own family (my mom was devastated to hear the news about Vivian). Silver was butchered to death by Hamas last October 7th on Kibbutz Be’eri — tragically at the hands of the very people her life’s work had been dedicated to building bridges with.

As this year from hell has unfolded, Iran's role as the primary sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah has become unflinchingly transparent. Tehran has gradually emerged from behind the curtain, revealing itself as the main aggressor by doubling down on the mayhem by launching two massive, full-scale day-long missile offensives on Israel, first in April — coordinated with four other countries in the region — and then again last week, in the wake of several weeks of Israeli operations that included scores of assassinations of the heads of both organizations, in addition to killing thousands of generals, commanders and militants in precision-targeted explosions.

Brazen declarations of war by any historical military standard, Iran’s overt antagonization of Israel is drawing the entire region into a wider confrontation. Israel is also proving that it is in no mood to continue the historical charade of fake ceasefires, grudgingly sharing borders and natural resources, and slowly re-arming for the next attack. Israel seems to have zeroed in on the goal of once and for all forcing a robust, lasting regional agreement, and a complete disbandment of both Hamas and Hezbollah — or wage foreverwar until these things takes place.

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As this year from hell has unfolded, Iran's role as the primary sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah has become unflinchingly transparent.

The ramifications of an Iran-Israel war would be catastrophic on multiple levels. Economically, it would likely lead to a spike in global oil prices, potentially exacerbating an already apparent worldwide recession. Humanitarian consequences would be dire, with millions of civilians caught in the crossfire and a refugee crisis that would dwarf anything we've seen in recent memory. Politically, it could redraw alliances and power structures that have underpinned global stability for decades.

Perhaps most concerning is the potential for the conflict to go nuclear. While Israel's nuclear capabilities are an open secret, the progress of Iran's nuclear program remains a subject of intense debate.

The use of even a single tactical nuclear weapon would cross a Rubicon, shattering the nuclear taboo that has held since World War II and potentially opening Pandora's box of global nuclear proliferation.

This is the very scenario that could lead to Einstein's prophesied World War IV, fought by humans primitively throwing sticks and stones at each other, having regressed in their evolution in the aftermath of a devastating nuclear exchange. The choices our leaders make today determines whether our children inherit a world where this terrifying joke becomes actual reality.

As founders, investors, and global citizens, we must recognize that the outcome of this crisis will have far-reaching implications for every aspect of our lives and businesses. The interconnectedness of our world means that no one will be immune to the fallout of a major Middle Eastern war.

It's clear that a military solution is no solution at all. No one in 2024 should be living and experiencing missiles tearing into bustling, vibrant cities like Tel Aviv and Beirut. When I was a child in the 1980s, I was lucky to live for a brief time with my family in a town called Tirat Carmel, just outside of Haifa, just about halfway between the two cities, right along Israel’s famous Highway 4.

We’re talking about two cities, major historic cities, situated less than 200 km away from each other, that are being hit with deadly missile strikes as we speak. You know what city is about 200 km away from Toronto, where I’m currently writing this?

Belville, Ontario.

Anyone familiar with the GTA knows how jarring this comparison of distance is. Absolutely unimaginable and unacceptable in the Western mind and psyche, yet this is being allowed to rage on as the UN and (insert any number of three-lettered world organizations here) continue flying from peace conference to peace conference, talking about obscure initiatives that never seem to tackle any of the actual pressing problems.

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No one in 2024 should be living and experiencing missiles tearing into bustling, vibrant cities like Tel Aviv and Beirut.

What DOES the United Nations even do if they don’t get involved in a serious manner in negotiations between governments and groups that are mired in disagreement? It’s alarming to see the sad reality, how anemic the geopolitical impact has become for the famous organization my mother once worked for as a translator.

The only viable way out of this crisis is through robust, inclusive diplomacy. This means not just bringing Iran and Israel to the negotiating table, but involving all regional stakeholders and global powers in a comprehensive peace process. Crucially, we must apply first principles thinking to foreign policy. The current system, built on outdated paradigms and compromised institutions, is failing us.

It's time for a radical rethinking of how we approach global security and cooperation:

  1. Prioritize peace — but be prepared for war. We must exhaust all possible avenues for diplomacy and peace talks. However, when peace is rejected and war is thrust upon us, the response must be decisive, tactical, and deadly. This dual approach sends a clear message: we prefer peace, but we're fully capable of defending ourselves and our allies with overwhelming force if necessary.

  2. War is not a game — its consequences are irreversible. We must establish a new paradigm where initiating conflict is universally recognized as an unacceptable action with severe consequences. Groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, who have repeatedly initiated conflicts under the guise of resistance, must be held accountable. The international community must make it clear that war is unacceptable in modern civilization — and that the price of aggression is steep.

  3. The global arms trade must be severely limited and regulated, particularly in volatile regions. Conversely, we must ensure that democratic nations and their allies maintain a decisive military advantage. Countries like Iran, which sponsor terrorist organizations, should face stringent sanctions and, logically, be barred from positions of influence in international bodies such as the UN Security Council.

  4. International organizations must be reformed to actively promote peace and stability, not just maintain a corrupt status quo. The UN and its agencies, including UNRWA, need fundamental restructuring to ensure they serve peace effectively. Their has been too much evidence of UN personnel being involved, becoming embroiled in the conflict where they begin providing assistance and infrastructure for terror attacks, out of deeply misguided moral conclusion. This is classic mission-creep. This is outside the scope of what these institutions should be prioritizing: physical safety/well-being of civilians in conflict zones, negotiations and mediation, and management of relief resources.

  5. Establish a new framework for conflict resolution that recognizes the right of nations to defend themselves — while also addressing legitimate grievances for all parties. This framework should include measurable mechanisms for enforcing peace agreements and holding violators accountable, with real consequences for those who breach these agreements.

As business leaders and investors, we have a moral imperative to influence these changes. We must divest from companies that profit from ongoing conflicts and instead invest in initiatives that promote peace, stability, and defensive capabilities for democratic nations and their allies. The goal is a planet of communities where peace-loving people thrive, while maintaining the strength to deter those who threaten peace.

The future of the Middle East, and by extension the world, hangs in the balance. All of us, political leaders, entrepreneurs, creators, influencers, publishers, professionals and ordinary citizens — we possess the ability to choose sanity, to toggle towards moral compass, to begin to work tirelessly towards a peaceful resolution to this crisis.

The path forward is clear, if we have the courage to take it.

No more equivocation. No more half-measures. No more hypocrisy.

It's time to silence the drums of war, and amplify calls for peace.

We stand at a civilizational crossroads — let us choose the path of progress, cooperation, and shared humanity.

Onwards, to a future without war,

Moshe Modeira

Editor-in-Chief

Commerce & Capital

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Market Alpha: Titans Clash, Tech Evolves

As we navigate through a week marked by strategic corporate maneuvers, technological breakthroughs, and shifting regulatory landscapes, several key developments are reshaping the investment terrain.

Tech Giants' Strategic Moves

Apple's AI Integration and Product Pipeline

Google's AI-Driven Search Revolution

  • Google rolls out AI-organized search results in the US on mobile, fundamentally altering how users interact with online information.

  • The company expands its conversational AI voice chat, Gemini Live, to multiple languages, intensifying competition in the AI assistant space.

Meta's Gen Z Focus and AI Advancements

🔑 Key Insight: The AI arms race among tech giants is intensifying, with each company leveraging its strengths to carve out unique positions. Investors should watch for companies that can effectively and addictively integrate AI into existing products.

AI and Cloud Developments

OpenAI's Financial Maneuvers

Cloud Market Dynamics

Regulatory and Legal Challenges

Epic vs. Google Verdict

Crypto Regulatory Landscape

🔑 Key Insight: The regulatory environment for tech and crypto companies is becoming increasingly complex. Prioritize companies with robust compliance frameworks, and the agility to adapt to evolving legal requirements across jurisdictions.

Global Tech Dynamics

Geopolitical Tensions and Tech

Emerging Markets and Tech Adoption

  • India and Singapore's collaboration in chip design and manufacturing underscores the ongoing reconfiguration of global tech supply chains.

🔑 Key Insight: Geopolitical tensions continue to reshape the tech landscape. Companies able to navigate this complex environment while maintaining strong digital security practices will see significant advantages.

Market Movements and Innovation

Cryptocurrency Market Shifts

🔑 Key Insight: The tech sector is undergoing rapid changes, with opportunities emerging in specialized AI hardware, quantum computing, and evolving cryptocurrency markets.

Alpha Recap and Forecast

  • Expect increased volatility in AI-related stocks as competition intensifies and regulatory scrutiny grows.

  • The mobile app ecosystem may see significant disruption following the Epic vs. Google verdict, creating opportunities for nimble players.

  • Cybersecurity stocks could see renewed interest amid high-profile hacking incidents and geopolitical tensions.

  • Watch for emerging opportunities in AI infrastructure, including specialized hardware and cloud services.

  • Regulatory changes in crypto markets may lead to a reshuffling of market leaders and create openings for compliant platforms.

Investors should consider building a balanced portfolio that includes established tech giants adapting to the AI era, emerging AI infrastructure providers, cybersecurity leaders, and companies at the forefront of regulatory compliance in fast-evolving sectors such as crypto and mobile gaming.

Commerce & Capital: Fostering Trust

The Moral Mogul: Building Businesses on Trust and Integrity

The naive, honest, straight-line objectives era of entrepreneurship that typified the 2000s and the 2010s feels almost assuredly over. The days when a clever idea and a bit of marketing could catapult you into the stratosphere of success have given way to a far more complex, nuanced, and often treacherous business environment.

Consider these sobering statistics:

These numbers paint a stark picture, but they only tell part of the story. What they don't capture is the increasingly confusing maze of regulations, market forces and ethical considerations that entrepreneurs navigate every single day.

The Corruption Conundrum

Let’s address the elephant in the room: corruption and crony capitalism are not anomalistic aberrations merely confined to developing economies. They are real, present forces shaping the business world in ways both subtle and overt.

This isn't a partisan issue. Both major political parties in the U.S. have been implicated in sundry forms of cronyism and regulatory capture. The tentacles between government and corporate interests continues to grow, continually blurring the lines between public service and private gain.

Many entrepreneurs I know view this as simply how the game is played. I will always argue that not only is this perspective ethically bankrupt, it's also demonstrably, in the long tail, bad for business.

The Ethics Imperative

Despite this climate of mistrust and cynicism, ethical business practices should become a focus of your business, project or venture. It’s putting you at a competitive advantage. Consider these data points:

  • 86% of consumers say transparency from businesses is more important than ever before (Label Insight, 2023)

  • Companies with high ethical standards are 40% more likely to have a higher return on equity (Ethisphere Institute, 2023)

  • 77% of consumers are motivated to purchase from socially conscious companies “committed to making the world a better place.” (Cone Communications, 2023)

In a world where trust is in increasingly in short supply, businesses that are seen to be consistently making the effort to be sustainable, to be environmental stewards, to be able to credibly claim the moral high ground, have a significant edge.

But let's be clear — this isn't about greenwashing or performative ethics or corporate virtue signalling. It's about a fundamental realignment of business priorities that places ethical considerations at the core of every decision.

Trust: The Hidden Asset

You won't find "trust" or "honesty" on any balance sheet, but it has always struck me what imperative ingredients they are to any well-functioning business venture. They are arguably, while invisible, the most valuable assets any business can possess. Trust is the lubricant that allows business relationships to function smoothly, reduces transaction costs and unlocks doors to new opportunities.

Building trust isn't an easy arc, and it certainly isn't quick. It requires consistent, principled action over time. But the dividends it pays — in brand awareness, in customer loyalty, employee retention, revenues and profits — are immeasurable.

The 360° Ethical Perspective

So, what does all this mean for you, the business professional, founder, entrepreneur or creator navigating this complex landscape? It means adopting what I call a "360° Ethical Perspective." Recognize that success in today's business environment requires an all-around approach to business conduct:

  1. Ethical Foundations: Building your business focused on a mental prism of ethical principles that guide every decision.

  2. Stakeholder Consideration: Recognizing that your business impacts not just shareholders, but employees, customers, suppliers, and communities.

  3. Long-term Vision: Prioritizing sustainable, long-term growth over short-term gains.

  4. Transparency: Being open and honest with employees, with investors and with the public about your objectives, successes, and failures.

  5. Continuous Learning: Staying informed about the broader context within which your business operates — political, social, and environmental.

  6. Active Engagement: Using your voice and resources to advocate for fair and ethical business practices in your industry and beyond.

This isn't just idealism — it’s leadership in our modern age. We’re in a world where consumers are increasingly savvy, and information travels at the speed of light. Businesses that fail to adopt a holistic perspective risk being left behind.

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"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."

- Margaret Mead

The Snowball Effect

Here's the truly exciting part: as more of us entrepreneurs adopt the 360° ethical perspective, it creates a snowball effect. Ethical businesses attract ethical people, ethical employees, partners, and customers. This is how real change happens — not through grand gestures or sweeping legislation, but through the collective actions of individuals and businesses committed to doing things differently.

CTA: The Path Forward

The path of ethical, trust-based business isn't always the easiest. In my experience, it has meant saying no to highly lucrative but corrupt opportunities. It has meant slower growth in the short term. It has literally cost me millions of dollars. The game is vicious. The golden rule prevails. It’s ruthless out here.

But for those willing to embrace the paradigm of conscious capitalism, the opportunities are boundless. How are you incorporating ethical considerations into your entrepreneurial journey? We want to hear from you. Share your thoughts, experiences, and challenges in the comments below or reach out to us 👀 📢 🚀 

🌍 Social Media

Why is it hard to change someone's mind? We are in the age of peak dissonance and disagreement about even shared objective reality. Everyone has their own opinion on almost everything now — and it seem’s like it’s gotten even harder to change people’s minds or influence them in a different direction once they have dug their heels in. Neuroscientist Rachelle Summers posted about this phenomena in detail, exploring some of the reasons why humans can be so bull-headed and not change their minds even when presented with new data, information and facts.

There are now more 55+yr/olds working in the US than 25-34 year olds — @Economica. Last week, we pointed to the fact that serious irregularities and abnormalities featured in the current labour market has governments and financial officials worried beyond the inflationary economics that has been the focus. Yes, there is a straight line from the pandemic to where we are currently sitting today — but it certainly has been astonishing how the metrics seem to be getting worse and worse daily. We should deep dive more into this in another edition. Threads like these are worthy to explore on X as you have some incredibly dedicated economists and financial analysts who are able to use data to break down some of the nuances of what we are seeing.

📚 Book Shelf

Smarter Not Harder by Dave Asprey. Dave Asprey, renowned for his work in biohacking and productivity, presents a novel approach to wellness in this highly recommended book. Drawing from his expertise in optimizing human performance, Asprey challenges conventional wisdom about health and fitness. The book introduces the concept of "MeatOS," Asprey's term for the body's operating system, which he argues is naturally inclined towards laziness. Rather than advocating for intense exercise regimens or strict diets, Asprey proposes a system of targeted biohacks aimed at upgrading metabolic, neurological, and epigenetic systems. His method focuses on working with the body's innate tendencies, emphasizing smarter, not harder, approaches to exercise, eating, and stress management.

Jewish Meditation by Aryeh Kaplan. This book is an exploration of meditation techniques rooted in Jewish tradition. Author Aryeh Kaplan, a respected rabbi and scholar, uncovers various forms of Jewish meditation that have been largely forgotten over time. The book introduces readers to practices such as hitbodedut (spontaneous personal prayer), visualization techniques based on Kabbalistic concepts, mantra-like meditations using Hebrew letters and divine names, and contemplative practices centered on Torah study and Jewish ethics. Kaplan contextualizes these techniques within Jewish mystical traditions like Kabbalah and Hasidism, while also drawing parallels to other meditative practices. He provides both historical background and practical guidance, making the book accessible to beginners and valuable for Jews and non-Jews alike.

The Value of Others by Orion Taraban. After seeing Orion's interesting gender dynamics brand PsycHacks on Youtube for years, I was interested in learning more about his mindset by reading this book. The Value of Others is one of the more interesting books on romantic relationships and modern gender dynamics I have ever delved into. Orion Taraban, Psy.D., is a clinical psychologist who presents an economic model of relationships that places the perception of value at the core of human pairing. The book explores into the often uncomfortable laws governing the sexual marketplace, suggesting that everyone is essentially seeking to secure a relationship with their perceived best option. Taraban's approach offers a fresh perspective on relationship dynamics, promising readers a new way of understanding human connections. By applying economic principles to interpersonal relationships, Taraban endeavours to provide insights that can fundamentally change how readers view and navigate their own relationships.

📰 Article Of The Week

Substack wants to do more than just newsletters by Max Tani, Semafor: I’m clearly partial to Beehiiv these days but I like to keep tabs on all the players in the burgeoning creator economy. After all, there would be no Beehiiv without Substack as its predecessor. Seven years after its launch, Substack is aiming to expand its value proposition beyond its newsletter format. The company is repositioning itself as a central platform for paying creators of all types, not just writers. Fascinatingly — Substack is reaching out to influencers, video creators, and podcasters, pitching itself as a more lucrative alternative to YouTube. The company claims its recommendation network drives 50% of all subscriptions and 30% of paid subscriptions. While news content remains Substack's largest subscriber segment, the platform is actively courting non-news creators. This shift puts Substack in more direct competition with crowdfunding services like Patreon. The company's strategy aims to justify its reported $650 million valuation and potentially make it an attractive acquisition target for payment platforms. However, this expansion also poses risks, including potential dissatisfaction from core newsletter writers and the challenge of retaining creators long-term given Substack's 10% revenue cut.

See y’all next week! Would love to hear your thoughts — leave your comments below.

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